EVE Online: Actual Math for Faction Warfare Changes


Here’s the problem with Math by these guys:

http://themittani.com/features/factional-warfare-nerf-bat-straight-face

http://greedygoblin.blogspot.com/2012/09/fw-nerf-and-future-of-highsec-missioning.html

They don’t know shit about FW. Well, goons should have a better idea. Being they were first in the Minnie Front to do the first cash out and brag about it. But if Gevlon has an idea then you know you aren’t in the right direction. Pinky lost me just as soon as he linked him. Implant buying? No dude, no.

This one knows her shit, probably because, I don’t know, she is in FW, maybe:

http://www.gamerchick.net/2012/09/the-math-behind-faction-war-30.html

However, her analysis is on the overall expected effects based on the historical changes. And she goes into the side effects and issues involved to make the conditions viable.

But, the Question that the EVE world wants to know is simply:

“I hear this FW thing is a broken ISK faucet. I want this to change because I’m too lazy to either A) Jump on That or B) Stubborn and Stupid. Have you nerf batted the problem? And by how much?”

Here is the answer as simple as I can put it, yes, and minimally by 41.12% of what Inferno paid out by simple comparison of the best case scenario.

Tier LP Bonus LP Gain LP / Hour LP Item Bonus LP Costs ISK Costs Market Value (Est.) ISK Profit ISK / LP Profit / Hour
OLD                      
1 0% 10000 60000 Datacore 400% 200 $200,000 $300,000 $100,000 $500 $30,000,000
2 5% 10500 63000 Datacore 200% 100 $100,000 $300,000 $200,000 $2,000 $126,000,000
3 10% 11000 66000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $330,000,000
4 15% 11500 69000 Datacore 50% 25 $25,000 $300,000 $275,000 $11,000 $759,000,000
5 20% 12000 72000 Datacore 25% 12.5 $12,500 $300,000 $287,500 $23,000 $1,656,000,000

As basic as possible as I could keep it:

Old system plexing assumes 10K per 10mins. We aren’t considering FW missioning, which is a higher payout, but Plexing in Inferno meant little risks and viably easier consistency. We are keeping the item the same at the highest sell point in major systems. These actually fluxuated between $220K and $350K depending on your patience. We assumed you Plexed at Level 5 and Cashout at level 5, meaning highest possible LP to ISK ratio, which isn’t possible, but we look at highest possible.

Perfect world, your ISK payout in profit was as of Oct 22, 2012 a max of $1.656B per hour. Which again assumes all level 5, you could constantly plex and you sold your datacores at near max costs.

The reason why Gevlon and others numbers are a bit off, is because it was Datacores that drove our wallets up. If you were trading BPOs and Implants on the cashouts, you probably fucked yourself by a good 70%. The bitch was handing out free sex and you wanted a hand job. Simply put. That’s why some worked hard to gain $5B while some of us were able to gain $10B on LP gained from kills alone. You didn’t keep it simple. Ammo did well for a time, but … datacores are datacores.

In the new world coming Oct 23rd:

http://community.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=73491

Our item costs will be static again and the tier change is our LP gain bonus. In a perfect world:

Tier LP Bonus LP Gain LP / Hour LP Item Bonus LP Costs ISK Costs Market Value Profit ISK / LP Profit / Hour
NEW                    
1 -50% 5000 30000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $150,000,000
2 0% 10000 60000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $300,000,000
3 75% 17500 105000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $525,000,000
4 150% 25000 150000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $750,000,000
5 225% 32500 195000 Datacore 0% 50 $50,000 $300,000 $250,000 $5,000 $975,000,000

 Assume we are somehow able to gain LP under level 5 conditions. And saying items hold at the old market values, you can at best turn $0.975B per hour. Again, best case, which is not possible, but best case.

So apples to apples, the nerf is by at least 41.12% (1-0.975/1.656) at best case one versus the other.

But it’s further than just that:

1)      CCP eliminated stabbed/gun-less frigs offensive button spinning. Which means, riskless, brand new alt making LP with ease died.

  1. NPC must be destroyed to win plex.
  2. No offensive plexing in a vulnerable system.
  3. These were both obvious changes. CCP could have probably stopped just with those. But hey, let’s go change a bunch of things.

2)      There is a small window for stabbed/gun-less frigs to stay in FW with new Defensive Plexing. But with a 75% payout against contested percentages. This is likely to be negated.

  1. To get the 7.5K LP defensive gain you would need to find a 100% contested zone.
  2. Saying that these 100% contested zones were all that available, would probably mean that you are against the dominant Faction. Which means you are probably in tier 1. Which means that 7.5 just got cut to 3.75LP per 10 mins.

3)      Zone upgrades were quadrupled in costs.

  1. What’s the likelihood that FW players will donate 4X more LP of theirs not for a Cash Out (1 time deal) but for a sustainable LP gain for others? Pretty much a chance of fucking zero.
  2. At least they added slower degrading.
  3. Prediction: at best Factions will try to maintain the Tier 2 with Tier 3 being a good day.

4)      And a couple more non-factors to coming in the future about plexing NPCs and Counters.

Overall the plan is a good change. I’m not a big fan of the 50% negative factor at Tier 1, but in the end, what the fuck do I care. We are already rich out our fucking nose. So … whatever.

The biggest change that needs to come into play is simply the system upgrades. LP driven donations is not the right way. System control, system levels and sustainable control should be driven by plexing alone. Simply put the level of the system should coincide only with the system control, not LP donations.

System Level Minimum Contested Level Maximum Contested Level
Vulnerable 5.99%
1 6% 24.99%
2 25% 49.99%
3 50% 74.99%
4 75% 94.99%
5 95% 100%

 But hey, obvious answers to obvious questions:

“How can you continually offensively plex a system that is vulnerable?”
and
“How does a button alone control a plex completion?”

Seemed obvious to, I don’t know, everyone.

So we ask ourselves:

“How does LP donations make any sense on System Level/Control?”

And … I assume you will come to the basic answer, I don’t know, everyone else has. Just in case it was lost on you.

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